Anyone who considers arithmetical methods of producing random digits is, of course, in a state of sin.
John von Neumann
When planning a significant change in your business, you typically need to consider a host of different factors, along with their interdependencies and potential future development. What variable can affect the outcome in which way? What happens if you adjust one lever or the other? What if one or several underlying conditions change? Solving questions like these is my field of expertise.
My services encompass all stages of the value chain: selecting the right approaches and tools; validating, enhancing and analyzing your data; and setting up IT-based models, scenario calculations and simulations.
Typical service packages include the following:
Data services (Market data enhancement)
What is the demand for a certain medical service in a particular region? How many patients with a certain indication should a hospital prepare for? What is the regional distribution of target customers for a specific drug? These are some examples of questions that healthcare providers typically face.
Analytic Services provides quick and accurate answers. I keep public demographic and micro-geographic data in storage, structured in a proprietary model, and I update them regularly. Depending on your particular needs, specific sets of data can be extracted, structured, consolidated and enriched with primary data from other public sources (such as hospital quality records/reports). The result is a data set ready for use.
Should you need any further analysis or interpretation, such as regional market analyses or target/actual comparisons, I’ll be happy to provide those, too.
Planning frameworks and business models
Effective business planning takes account of future developments and interdependencies: What will happen to our revenues if prices drop, if a new supplier enters the market, if legal conditions change? What are the key factors determining whether a new business will reach break-even? By using analytical tools such as modeling, scenario calculation and simulations, I can help you improve the accuracy of your forecasts and budgeting.
It sometimes happens that clients have created their own data models based on spreadsheet technology. Working with Excel and co. has its pitfalls, however: As models grow larger, their complexity tends to increase exponentially, and so do potential errors. One way to avoid this is by programming standard queries, another service I provide. It makes models easier to handle and helps avoid errors.
Business decision support
Before introducing changes to a business, you want to know the numbers. In-house resources often lack the capacity or skill to address non-routine issues. In some cases, outsourcing may even be required for legal reasons, such as when a merger or alliance is envisaged.
My services add valuable insights to your in-house business analyses and market research. Besides ensuring consistency of the data analyzed, I apply complementary analytical techniques and, if appropriate, set up data models to run a range of scenarios.
Statistics and forecasts
“Predictions are difficult – especially about the future,” goes a famous quote by Nobel Laureate Niels Bohr. Good forecasts are key to success in any kind of business; sometimes they can even ensure the survival of entire companies. Everything hinges on the method selected and the data quality.
Count on me to provide a forecast model exactly matching your needs. It will combine various data sets – such as past developments, survey results, and demographic and micro-geographic data – and take account of relevant drivers. Tailored to your individual situation and clearly structured, a customized model is likely to be much more accurate than any off-the-shelf tool.
Modeling of health-economics data
There is one way in which the healthcare market differs substantially from other markets: The demand for products and services is driven not so much by their recipients – the patients – as by third parties: doctors and health insurances.
Accurate forecasts of, say, the market potential or cost of a new service are therefore difficult, as there are many complexities involved. Models must include demographic developments, health trends, the incidence of relevant diseases, and relevant regulations. Depending on your specific needs, I can set up models on the cost and value of innovative treatments, healthcare coverage, the value of disease management measures, and much more. Scenario calculations and simulations help you get a clearer picture of probable future developments.